Electioneering Strategy

Looking at post-election commentenary I like to read about how surprising results happened. Usually it is not by luck alone (but always some of that, too). The race for Congress in NY-25 House district caught my interest as the challenger, Ann Marie Buerkle, appears to have narrowly won her race against a well-liked incumbent (the race is still too close to call). Certainly, part of her fortune was to run in a heavily-tilted GOP year as a republican. But according to this Syracuse article, the anti-democratic wave was not sufficient for her to win, but a network of novice campaigners provided the groundwork to get her over the top.

What is also very interesting is all the volunteer work that goes into campaigns (we already know about all the money). And the question begs: Is volunteer work by novice constituents more effective than campaign work done by paid professionals? Consider this NY-25 constituent that is featured in the article as helping spear-hear the volunteer network of support: "I listened to her talk and I was totally captivated with her," Maslona said of Buerkle. "It really motivated me to want to work for her."

And here is her assessment of her difference-making volunteer brigade: "It was just a lot of hard work," she said. "I don't know how else to describe it. The volunteers just kept me going. I couldn't have paid these volunteers to do this kind of work with so much passion and enthusiasm." In a campaign year when Meg Whitman lost the California governor's race by 10 points after spending $150 million, it is nice to hear that passion often trumps money when human capital is what is really needed.

Future Value

Today is election day and the political "experts" have made their predictions for the outcome. Which brings up the interesting dilemma of predicting the future -- in business and politics and sports people like to predict the future. The popularity of punditry is undeniable.

First, for today's election is pretty straightforward because of the science of polling. Predicting republicans will pick up seats in the U.S. Congress is simple because of the many polls taken over the last several months. Interestingly, however, when the polls show something that is unprecedented such as the what some say about the size of the possible changeover, then the pundits can create alternative interpretations as they try to fit the new facts to historical records.

Punditry and fascination for the future has few limits. Consider the Internet site intrade where you can bet on future events of all stripes. For example, do you know the odds that Sarah Palin will get the republican presidential nomination in 2012? Well at this moment those odds are nearly 17% according to those willing to bet their money via intrade. I am not sure, but I doubt Barack Obama was even rated for the nomination in 2006, two years before he got elected president (and those that took high odds on Hilary Clinton lost their bet). The future is fascinating, but impossible to predict.

Many tomorrow will get their predictions about this election mostly right (intrade has the probability of a republican takeover in the House at 96%, so don't be too impressed by anyone predicting such an outcome) but anyone who cared to predict this election 18 months ago or earlier . . . well they might as well go the racetrack (or predict who will win the world series in 2011) where educated guesses probably are going to still lose you money.

Corporate Athletes

A lot is made of both professional athlete salaries and executive salaries, particularly how ridiculously high they are. In the case of executives salaries of CEOs have come under scrutiny for the obscene payouts for those whose companies either tread water or fail. I am in Vancouver attending a conference and a performance expert from Human Performance Institute who trains what they call executive athletes made an interesting comparison between professional athletes and corporate executives:

Workday: Athlete 4-5 hours; Executive 8-12 hours

Career span: Athlete 5-7 years; Executive 40-50 years

Train/Perform ratio: Athlete 90%/10%; Exec 10%/90%

Accountability: Athlete Game or Race Day; Exec ALL the TIME

Off Season: Athlete Several months; Exec 3-4 weeks

Maybe both earn their pay. Or to put another way -- why would a normal person want either job? Professional Athletes put demands on their bodies that impair their bodies later and executives (at least high profile ones) don't seem to have much of a life outside of their job. Of course lots of people want either of those jobs for the simple reason that how can you ever get the highs associated with competing and winning that you get as professional athletes and executive athletes. And if they reach the top, they get paid VERY, VERY well.

Like Business

You can read a lot of political news these days with an election a month away. Today, I read about the prospects for the two main political organizations -- democrats and republicans. In this article from an Arizona website, I was intrigued by this quote: "In some ways, Democrats were bound to face this kind of pressure. The party's recent run of good political fortune is hard to sustain."

In fact, political parties are just like companies who "market" their services to consumers (voters). In politics, the parties seek some kind of sustainable edge -- often the concept used is political realignment where some kind of enduring coalition is built. In business it is called "sustainable competitive advantage." But the notion of sustainable advantage is becoming more fleeting all around as the quote above indicates. Perhaps, it is because consumers have so much better access to knowledge. In any case, political analysts may want to be careful asserting such a thing as political alignment just as business leaders should not assume they ever will reach that holy grail of sustained competitive advantage.

Rockhurst Centennial

I got to take in some of the festivities on Friday night for the Centennial celebration. First, the Helzberg School had an open house and honored Marian Nigro, who was the administrator for our Executive Fellows program for many years. Dozens of Fellows alumni have fond memories of Marian and she certainly left her stamp on the program. Memorabilia -- mostly collected and saved by her -- were laid out for the open house. The most memorable were the caricatures drawn for each class -- each alum would find their drawing in the class picture that was displayed. God bless Marian who passed away earlier this year.

Also walked the grounds with my youngest children and then took in the volleyball match. The volleyball was great entertainment and Rockhurst won 3 straight games for the match. As we walked to our car we took in a snippet of the soccer game taking place right in the middle of all the hub-bub of the evening -- a great venue. The team managed a tie and Coach Tocco was honored at a reception right afterwards.

Here is the interesting thing: Coach Tocco was back at school at 7:45 a.m. the next morning, to teach his Accounting class. This after a long game that went overtime and reception that went right up to midnight. And even though he probably wanted more sleep, he would say he loved to do both things. Besides having student-athletes at a smaller school like Rockhurst, we have coach-academics who do well in both areas. Not bad at all.

Issues of the Day

Although I have a point of view on most things, I am sometimes surprised by how someone else sees an issue or news that paints an issue in a new light. Here is what I read today that fit into these categories.

First, news that is completely surprising -- the Wall Street Journal reports on the school in Los Angeles that cost nearly $600 million to build -- much more than it cost to build the Staples arena not far from this school. I have tended to have the view that good money follows bad in financing of public schools, yet, I had no idea of the extravagance heaped on the Robert F. Kennedy Community Schools complex. And, for the most part, the people approved this expenditure through bond issues. The amenities at this school ready to open in a few days include vaulted ceilings and "florid murals of Robert F. Kennedy." A person overseeing this venture noted that there was no price for having good taste. The one thing that was not shocking to me was a track record for a similar glitzy, high-dollar venue in L.A. (Roybal Learning Center) -- it badly underperformed compared to the overcrowded and non-descript school it was meant to supplement.

Second, George Will's Washington Post op-ed, shares the thinking of Walter Russell Mead regarding the climate change issue. According to Mead the apparent slowdown of the climate change zeitgeist is somewhat predictable because its movement fifty years ago was one of skeptics of government and conventional thinking. The environmentalists took on such "scientific" movements like urban renewal and nation building. They were close cousins of economic Libertarians who also had a disdain for government solutions. Now the environmental movement is Big Brother, driven by a government and scientific consensus that has little toleration for skeptics. In any case, Mead's point of view is interesting and one I had not thought of before.

These things might give one pause -- especially those working and studying at college -- for not thinking there is another side. Of course, when these arguments tend to support your point of view you are more likely to read them.

Benedictine Monks

Just spent a most enjoyable day-and-a-half up at Conception Abbey with our Executive MBA class. Among other great things that happened during the stay, Father Curran addressed the class and gave an interesting contrast to the Benedictines that run the Abbey and the Jesuits who were formed about 1000 years later.

The monks are very much a community -- it is embedded in who they are. For them retirement is the grave as they are committed to staying true to the rigorous routines of the Abbey schedule (at least 4 prayer times, all done together and 6 a.m. vigils -- every day). The motto for the monks is prayer and work and they do plenty of both. All of them have a vocation that contributes to the operation of the monastery, which boasts a beautiful Basilica, circa 1891. For these folks plans involve centuries. The delightful Abbot Gregory, for example, has been at Conception for nearly 40 years. The genesis of the Benedictine order is 1500 years ago.

Jesuits, on the other hand, use the motto "Contemplation in Action," which fits them quite well and their mission of education. Reflection is a core value, starting with the spiritual exercises developed by Ignatius. The Jesuits spend much of prayer alone rather than in group. Importantly, they look to serve where the world is; nearly all of their 28 U.S. universities operate in urban areas. As Father Curran noted, however, despite this contrast [the strategy person in me sees the interesting positions these two order present that clearly differentiate them] they are linked because it was the Benedictines who took in an injured Ignatius for convalescence. And it was here that he developed the Spiritual Exercises and later the Jesuit order. Thus, Father Curran was able to make the connection of these somewhat related orders while clearly showing how they are distinct.